Tag: statistical-reasoning

4 pages tagged statistical-reasoning.

Pages

Chapter 10: The Law of Small Numbers — Thinking, Fast and Slow

Small samples produce wildly extreme results by chance — yet System 1 instinctively seeks causal explanations for what are purely statistical artifacts, generating systematic bias in research, medicine, and everyday judgment.
Chapter 16: Causes Trump Statistics — Thinking, Fast and Slow

When a vivid causal story is available, statistical base rates are not just underweighted — they are psychologically overridden. This is why stereotype-based predictions feel more credible than actuarial ones, even when the statistics are better evidence.
Chapter 17: Regression to the Mean — Thinking, Fast and Slow

Extreme performance in any direction is partly luck — and luck does not repeat. Regression to the mean is a mathematical certainty whenever measurements are imperfect, but it is invisible to System 1, which generates causal explanations for statistical inevitabilities.
Chapter 18: Taming Intuitive Predictions — Thinking, Fast and Slow

Intuitive predictions are too extreme — we anchor on the most diagnostic evidence and fail to adjust for regression. The correction is a two-step statistical procedure: start from the base rate, adjust toward the evidence by its actual predictive validity.