Tag: base-rate-neglect

2 pages tagged base-rate-neglect.

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Chapter 14: Tom W’s Specialty — Thinking, Fast and Slow

When a vivid, specific description is available, people judge probability by similarity to a prototype — ignoring base rates entirely. The representativeness heuristic produces confident probability estimates that are systematically wrong whenever the description is more diagnostic than the statistics.
Chapter 16: Causes Trump Statistics — Thinking, Fast and Slow

When a vivid causal story is available, statistical base rates are not just underweighted — they are psychologically overridden. This is why stereotype-based predictions feel more credible than actuarial ones, even when the statistics are better evidence.