Tag: forecasting
Tag: forecasting
5 pages tagged forecasting.
Pages
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Chapter 42: Key Economic Indicators — Economics 101
The leading-coincident-lagging taxonomy of economic indicators: which numbers tell you where the economy is heading, where it is now, and where it has just been — plus a tour of the offbeat indicators traders actually watch.
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Chapter 18: Taming Intuitive Predictions — Thinking, Fast and Slow
Intuitive predictions are too extreme — we anchor on the most diagnostic evidence and fail to adjust for regression. The correction is a two-step statistical procedure: start from the base rate, adjust toward the evidence by its actual predictive validity.
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Chapter 20: The Illusion of Validity — Thinking, Fast and Slow
Skilled professionals form confident predictions from coherent impressions — and remain confident even when confronted with evidence that their predictions are no better than chance. The feeling of validity is generated by coherence, not by predictive accuracy.
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Chapter 21: Intuitions vs. Formulas — Thinking, Fast and Slow
Simple actuarial formulas consistently outperform expert clinical judgment in low-feedback prediction domains. The evidence is overwhelming and has been known for decades — yet it is resisted because it threatens expert identity and the felt value of holistic judgment.
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Chapter 23: The Outside View — Thinking, Fast and Slow
Intuitive project planning ignores how similar projects have actually performed — the planning fallacy. The outside view corrects this by anchoring on the reference class distribution, then adjusting for specific features of the current project.
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